Electoral College Update 19

Kerry 291, Bush 247 electoral votes. The latest projection, based on averages of all recent state-by-state polls, shows no change from last week. You'll find the latest data here.

The alternate calculation of swing states yields the same result. Among the 19 swing states in 2000, New Hampshire and Florida are on track to change parties, moving from Bush to Kerry.

Bush had hoped that he would be able to fool Latino voters into supporting him, despite his anti-immigrant, anti-worker, anti-Latino policies. But a poll released today in the Washington Post shows Kerry holding Latino votes, with twice the support of Bush. Richard Morin and Dan Balz report:

Sen. John F. Kerry (D-Mass.) holds a strong lead over President Bush among the nation's Hispanic voters, with a majority rejecting the president's handling of the economy and the war in Iraq, according to a survey by The Washington Post, Univision and the Tomas Rivera Policy Institute.

At a time when Bush and Kerry are running about even among all registered voters, Kerry enjoys a 2 to 1 advantage over Bush among Latino registered voters. Hispanics give Bush lower approval ratings than the overall population does, and the poll shows that the bulk of the Latino community continues to identify with the Democratic Party.…

Hispanic voters in the 11 states with the largest Latino electorates were interviewed by telephone July 6-16. Together, these states are home to nearly nine out of 10 Hispanic voters living in the United States. They include the key battlegrounds of Florida, New Mexico and Arizona, where Latino voters may play a decisive role this fall…

Latino voters who were surveyed were sharply critical of the war in Iraq. More than six in 10—63 percent—said the war was not worth fighting, a view shared by slightly more than half of all voters nationally. Fewer than a third of all Latinos and fewer than half of all voters believe the war justified its costs.

Latinos also are more pessimistic about the war on terrorism than the overall population is, with 37 percent saying the United States is winning and 40 percent saying it is losing.

The survey found that Kerry claims support from 60 percent of all Latino registered voters in the 11 states surveyed while Bush has 30 percent.…

Kerry also was viewed as more caring and, by a smaller margin, better able to handle crises than Bush. On none of the key measures of presidential character or personality was Bush judged to be superior to his Democratic challenger, an advantage Kerry holds even though about one in four Latinos said they did not know enough about him to judge.

No recent polls have been conducted in five states and the District of Columbia: Delaware, DC, Hawaii, Nebraska, North Dakota, and Wyoming. It is likely that all of these electoral votes will go to the same party as in 2000.

I update this projection weekly. Check Thursday evening Pacific Time for new data. (Click here for my methodology.)