Electoral College Update 33

Bush 290, Kerry 248 electoral votes. In this latest projection, based on averages of all state-by-state polls within the last 14 days, Hawaii, Minnesota, New Mexico, and Wisconsin have shifted to Bush since last week. You'll find the latest data here.

In the alternate calculation of swing states, the result is Bush 286, Kerry 252. Despite the slight lead Bush holds in Hawaii polls, Kerry is still likely to carry the state, so this may be a more accurate projection.  Among the 19 swing states in 2000, Iowa (7 EVs), Minnesota (10), New Mexico (5), and Wisconsin (10) are on track to change from Democratic to Republican, while Ohio (20) and New Hampshire (4) are moving from Republican to Democratic.

Many states remain extremely close. In five, the gap is less than 2 percent: Ohio, where Kerry leads; and Florida, Hawaii, Minnesota, and Wisconsin, where Bush leads. These four large states (not including Hawaii) are likely to be where the election is won or lost. If Kerry wins all four, he will be elected 299-239; if Bush wins all four, he will be elected 306-232.

Professional polls tend to be very reliable, assuming proper sampling, question design, interview technique, and other methodological niceties. Nevertheless, polls conducted on the same day and with the same population can yield different results. Furthermore, political polls ask respondents to say how they would vote today; by the time of the election, they may change their minds, so the data, though correct today, may be incorrect tomorrow. If you'd like to read more about these often perplexing issues, here are three good places to start:

• Richard Morin has an interesting overview of the polling business and its complexities in today's Washington Post.
  
• Mark Blumenthal, at his Mystery Pollster blog, answers nearly every question you can think of, and he writes in a cogent, understandable style. His recent pieces include an essay on tracking polls and a thorough, six-part explanation of how likely voters are defined. Notice the FAQs in the upper right margin.
  
• Ruy Teixeira, at the Donkey Rising blog, examines recent polls and explains the meaning of their internals and their biases. In the process, he provides tutorials on how to read polls and insight into the election process. His latest essay argues that this will be a high-turnout election, and that is good news for Democrats.

Click here for a spreadsheet showing the state-by-state leads. The projection will be updated two more times, on Saturday, October 30, and Monday, November 1—check late in the evening Pacific Time for new data. Click here for methodology.