Electoral College Update 35

Bush 296, Kerry 242 electoral votes. In this latest projection, based on averages of all state-by-state polls within the last 7 days, Wisconsin has shifted to Bush since Saturday. Several states are extremely close, however, so that in actuality the race is a dead heat. The outcome depends entirely on which party is more successful getting its voters to the polls.

The chart shows projections since March 18. Click for a larger view.

In the alternate calculation of swing states, the result is the same.  Among the 19 swing states in 2000, Iowa (7 EVs), New Mexico (5), and Wisconsin (10) are on track to change from Democratic to Republican, while New Hampshire (4) is moving from Republican to Democratic. This map represents the raw averages of polls within the last 7 days.

Many states remain extremely close. In six, the gap is less than 2 percent: Pennsylvania, where Kerry leads; and Florida, Iowa, New Mexico, Ohio, and Wisconsin, where Bush leads. These now appear to be the final battleground states. If either candidate wins all six, he will be elected 311–227.

In an election that includes an incumbent, the majority of poll respondents who remain undecided just before an election usually vote for the challenger. That majority is typically between 65% and 85%. When undecided voters are allocated in this way, the map looks very different, and Kerry wins. Here I deduct 2% for Nader, Badnarik, and other candidates, then allocate the remaining undecided voters 30% to Bush and 70% to Kerry. Both of these calculations probably understate the actual swing to Kerry, particularly since Nader is not on the ballot in Ohio or Pennsylvania. With this allocation, Iowa, New Mexico, Ohio, and Wisconsin move into the Kerry column by a miniscule margin, and Florida is tied. The result is Kerry 282 284, Bush 227, tied 27. This map represents the results with undecided voters allocated.

Tomorrow is the only poll that counts, and it's clear from these maps that the election is still up for grabs, especially in these six swing states, so be sure to vote. And if you're still undecided, I do have a suggestion: Kerry is an excellent choice, far superior to that other fellow.

The following table shows the current lead in each state, based on averages of state polls conducted within the last 7 days. Raw averages are shown in the left columns, and results with undecided voters allocated are in the right columns.

For each state where no recent poll has been conducted, the party that won in 2000 is presumed to be in the lead and is awarded the electoral votes. Click here for a spreadsheet of this table. Click here for methodology.

This is the final projection. It's time now to get out there and vote!