IN-02 House Election: Money and DST
Indiana 2: north-central: Michigan City, South Bend, Elkhart (map)
Democrat: Joe Donnelly, lawyer, businessman
Republican: Chris Chocola, incumbent since 2003 (2004: won 54%–45% against Donnelly)
Poll, D +4: Donnelly 50%, Chocola 46% (10/10)
Outlook: leans Democratic
Post updated: October 17
Final result (11/8): Democrat 54%, Republican 46%
The farms and small towns of Indiana's 2nd District stretch south a
hundred miles from Lake Michigan, but its psychological center may well
be Notre Dame, home of the Fighting Irish, in South Bend. It's been
George Bush country for years—John Kerry lost here 43% to 56%. But this
year is different. As Larry Sabato puts it: "It's possible GOP fortunes are especially headed south in South Bend." And Maureen Groppe reports in the Indianapolis Star:
"Indiana is literally the center of the universe right now," said Amy Walter, who tracks House races for the nonpartisan Cook Political Report. "To have three Republican incumbents in a very Republican state either tied or behind their Democratic opponents, what is that?"…
"This country is in hurting shape," said [former Republican Ben] Kibert, wearing a "Forever Proud" T-shirt and a baseball cap with an American flag stitched on the front. "We're going downhill."
Bush's fortunes are going downhill across the country these days, but in northern Indiana the catalyst is Notre Dame graduate Joe Donnelly, native son and successful small businessman. Donnelly, who lost to incumbent Chris Chocola in 2004, grasps the dynamics of this race: "It’s clear to me that voters want change and they understand that when Chris Chocola goes to Washington, he goes to defend his party’s interests and the special interests."
But Donnelly cannot be viewed in this district as being too liberal or too closely connected to national Democratic leaders. So his mantra is: "I will be an independent voice." That stance is reflected in his policy statements. On Iraq, for example, he does say that there has been a series of mistakes and that a "clearly defined plan" is needed "to complete the Iraq mission." But he does not attack Bush or call for a withdrawal timetable.
Donnelly is also opposed to abortion and gun control. He strikes a more typically Democratic note when he proposes healthcare for all, calls Medicare Part D "a huge giveaway to the drug companies", and opposes privatization of Social Security. And he points to Tom DeLay's "culture of corruption," as Republicans have "practically sold the Congress to the highest bidder."
Chocola, who was CEO of an agricultural products company before going to Washington, has done well in his 4 years in the House, insinuating himself into the Republican leadership to become assistant majority whip and get appointments to the Ways and Means Committee and the Budget Committee. When he claims to be for "reining in the budget" and against "wasteful spending," then, it's worth asking what he has been doing in this profligate Bush era. Not surprisingly, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) has an answer: his leadership role is the result of close and corrupt ties to DeLay, Jack Abramoff, and Duke Cunningham, and he is "a good friend to the oil companies."
Like many right-wing Republicans, Chocola claims that the war on terror includes both the Iraq War and the fight against illegal immigration. He supports further privatization of healthcare, opposes stem-cell research, and boasts of his 100% rating from National Right to Life. Though Bush never had a better friend—he has visited the district seven times since 2000—the president's name and photo are absent from Chocola's website.
The toxic atmosphere for Republicans in Indiana is due not only to Bush's unpopularity, but also to two unpopular decisions made by Governor Mitch Daniels—imposing daylight savings time and selling a state toll road to a foreign firm. On the Rothenburg Report, Nathan Gonzales writes that the Republican governor "appears to be about as popular as bird flu, and he isn’t making it any easier for his party’s Congressional incumbents."
Donnelly lost two years ago, in part, because of a major cash disadvantage. Unfortunately, that seems to be true again this time, with Chocola ahead $1.9 million to $1.1 million, though the DCCC has now included Donnelly in its Red to Blue fundraising program, and that will begin to make up the difference. But the negative advertising—the expensive negative advertising—is well underway, and Donnelly is hoping for more contributions.
Nevertheless, Chocola is in trouble. The New York Times reports that several supporters have even been offering their sympathy:
“You doing O.K.?” a bank executive asked at a groundbreaking for a small manufacturing company. Mr. Chocola replied, “It’s an exercise in democracy.”
And Charlie Cook says the incumbent "looks more like an underdog than the frontrunner." Donnelly has taken a slim October lead, and the exercise in democracy seems to be moving in the right direction.
Read more:
Hi, I'm here in the 2nd district, and it does appear that Chocola is doing-poorly. His ads have been very poorly-conceived, especially the first-ones he ran that touted his support of President's Bush's failed Medicare reforms. He forgets the one for senior citizens has proven confusing and unpopular to the recipients. Chocola also has an aversion to public-appearances unless they are partisan. Sound familiar? He's a creep, and it will be a close-race. Donnelly had better start supporting immigrant-rights and calling for an end to the war in Iraq, and fast. I'm part of an anti-war group here, and people are definitely sick of the war here, we're a Catholic-town.
Posted by: Matt Janovic | Saturday, 16 September 2006 at 16:44