New Mexico 1: Albuquerque and suburbs (map)
Democrat: Patricia Madrid, state attorney general
Republican: Heather Wilson, incumbent since 1999 (2004: won 54%–46%)
Poll D +9: Madrid 53%, Wilson 44% (10/29)
Outlook: leans Democratic ▲ (from tossup)
Post updated: November 1
Final result (11/21): Republican 50.4%, Democrat 49.6%
Albuquerque, New Mexico, is an unlikely home for a Republican representative. Both John Kerry and Al Gore won in this 1st District, and the population is 43% Latino, 4% Native American, and 3% African American—not fertile ground for the GOP. But Heather Wilson has held this seat for 8 years by appearing to be less rigidly partisan than George Bush, with a few judiciously non-Republican moves, and in this campaign she is trying to maintain some distance between herself and the unpopular George Bush by tacking slightly left on a few issues.
Wilson, an ex–Air Force officer, is faced this year with a formidable opponent in Patricia Madrid (photo), the well-regarded state attorney general. And Madrid has some real issues to use against the incumbent: Wilson says she questioned the Iraq War but voted for it anyway, supported a pharma-friendly prescription drug plan, and failed to use her post on the House Intelligence Committee to investigate NSA wiretapping. Wilson has also accepted $65,000 in tainted campaign contributions from groups linked to lobbyist Jack Abramoff and indicted congressmen Duke Cunningham and Tom DeLay.
Wilson's voting record in Congress does show a few real departures from the Bush/DeLay line. She supported John McCain's anti-torture bill, and she rejected the House leadership's bills for punitive immigration policies and for cuts in welfare and student loans. But her essential fealty to Bush was made evident this week in the Intelligence Committee, where she chairs the subcommittee on technical and tactical intelligence. Wilson had proposed an NSA eavesdropping bill that did not give Bush all the powers he demanded, but on Tuesday she caved in, introducing a provision to "allow electronic surveillance without a warrant if a president tells Congress a deadly attack on the United States is 'imminent.' " In other words, no court warrants, no congressional oversight, no effective limitations.
Bush is not popular in New Mexico (with just 39% approval), and Madrid points to the fact that Wilson votes in support of the president 90% of the time. In a debate in September, Madrid said, "The Bush administration has been an unmitigated failure, and it is headed for historic disgrace. Heather Wilson has stood with George Bush every step of the way.… They have misled the American people." The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee is airing a TV ad with the same message: Wilson and Bush are shown together on highway billboards that say "They just keep driving in the same lane."
The Madrid campaign has also broadcast a TV spot on energy policy, charging Wilson with taking $400,000 from oil companies and then voting for the Bush energy bill that grants large subsidies to those very companies. Madrid calls for policies to combat global warming, including alternative energy sources, and her record as attorney general on this and other progressive issues is a strong foundation for a positive campaign.
Unfortunately, negative attack ads are often more effective, and Wilson currently has a larger war chest, with $4.3 million to Madrid's $2.9 million. The DCCC will continue to help, but more individual contributions are essential, along with an effective get-out-the-vote program. Madrid has led Wilson in every poll since October 1, and her campaign appears to be gaining momentum in the final days. This race now appears poised to be a Democratic gain.
Read more:
Comments